Category: Krystal Ball

Ball Shuts Out Robinson Again, Democratic Nomination Now Within Grasp

By , March 27, 2010 9:26 pm

With the way Krystal Ball has thoroughly dominated caucuses around Virginia’s First Congressional District, you would be surprised to learn that she actually has an opponent. She has swept one contest after another and the results should speak for themselves. So it should come as not surprise that Krystal dominated today at the York Poquoson Caucus, completely shutting out Scott Robinson (yet again!).

With today’s result, Krystal is now poised to secure the nomination in little more then a week. The only question that remains is how Scott plans on losing: with dignity and class or as a sore-loser. I hoping for the former, but I’m expecting the latter. I’d really like to be proven wrong on this one.

As has been the case with just about every caucus that has happened to date, the Robinson campaign resorted to their usual shenanigans. I’ve learned that Scott was actually inside the polling place harassing folks who were in line to vote. It got so bad that the chair of the committee had to ask Scott to stay 20 feet back. All of this could have something to do with why he lost by a 2 to 1 margin. I expect that Scott will throw out some wild claims that the vote was rigged and that the committee failed to do x, y and z. He may even threaten to sue, if his campaign money hasn’t already dried up. You see any other candidate would be gracious and would have exited the race when the results became clear a week ago, but not Scott.

At this point you have to also start questioning the advice Scott is getting from his staff, especially from his Campaign Manager Gregory Richardson. I’m thinking that this gig isn’t going to get him any gold stars on his resume. The field operation for this campaign has been atrocious. And in the perhaps the strangest allocation of resources I’ve ever seen, the Robinson campaign had folks canvassing Stafford and Fredericksburg on Thursday. So instead of focusing resources on York Poquoson, they chose to canvass an area that already conducted a caucus. Huh?! If that doesn’t boggle your mind, this will. These same canvassers, in making a case for Scott to a friend of mine, had the following to say (and I’m quoting):

I need to give you a little briefing of why Scott Robinson is running.  Krystal Ball is not an adequate candidate for Virginia.  For one thing, she’s not old enough to lead yet.  She doesn’t know the true values of Virginians like yourself.  Scott Robinson was born and raised in Virginia and he knows what Virginians need.  They need health care, to reform our schools, and fix our traffic problem.  Scott Robinson was a crab farmer on the Chesapeake on a boat called the ‘Betty May.’

Scott and his folks are shameless. I’ve spoken to several folks within the district and have heard much worse things that Scott and his people have said about Krystal. Some of it being so bad that I wouldn’t even dignify it with a post. Just as an FYI, Krystal was born in King George, VA and now lives in Fredericksburg; Scott has NO plan for health care, our schools or relieving our traffic problem. His whole platform has been one of avoidance on virtually all of the major issues (see my original analysis of this race).

If that wasn’t bad enough, they sent an expensive, poorly written mailer to folks within Stafford and Fredericksburg. Do they not understand how caucuses work? They essentially flush money down the toilet on a mailer that was just awful, when they should instead be focusing on committing resources to the various caucuses that have yet to be conducted. Scott should fire his entire staff and then himself!

The math for Scott at this point is simply insurmountable. He has only managed to secure 13 percent of the 123 delegates so far. Only 78 remain up for grabs. Even if he were able to win every single remaining delegate, he could not clinch the nomination. Heck, uncommitted has captured more delegates than Scott – 29 to be exact. The reality is that all Krystal needs to do is capture 30 percent of the remaining delegates and she is the nominee. She is 24 delegates away. Anybody with a basic understating of math realizes that this race is over. Scott is not going to win.

Regardless of whether Scott stubbornly decides to push forward, this will be over in the next week or so.  Scott needs to really think about how he wants to be remembered? With honor and class or does he want to continue the deplorable behavior we’ve all witnessed first hand. I’m rooting for Scott to choose the former.

Virginia’s First Congressional District Needs Representation, Not a Lap Dog

By , March 24, 2010 5:58 pm

It’s past time that Virginia’s First Congressional District had some real representation that is accountable to district constituents and not party bosses such as Eric Cantor (R-VA). Since December 13, 2007, Rob Wittman (R-VA) has made sure that the 7th Congressional District gets two representatives and the 1st gets none.

Wittman has pretty much done Cantor’s bidding, resembling more of a lap dog and not an elected representative from Virginia’s First Congressional District.

A lap dog is defined as “one eager to do another’s bidding, especially in order to maintain a position of privilege or favor.” Sounds like Wittman to me.

Let’s compare Wittman and Cantor’s voting records:

Rob Wittman and Eric Cantor have voted together 1657 times on roll call votes since January, 2007 in votes where neither abstained, representing a voting similarity of 93%.

So, Wittman has done Cantor’s bidding 1657 times or 93% of the time. One thing should be clear: Wittman is working for Cantor and not his constituents. We need and deserve our own congressman!

I, for one, am sick and tired of having no representation. If you’re sick and tired too, Krystal Ball (D-Fredericksburg) is ready and more then able to serve! We don’t need a lap dog, but a congressman!

Think Crabill Can’t Beat Wittman? Think Again.

By , March 24, 2010 4:16 pm

If you’re a Democrat hoping to knock off Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st Congressional District this November, news of Catherine Crabill jumping into the race definitely got your attention. An active member of her local ‘Tea Party’ outfit, I know for a fact that Crabill was seriously considering running as a third party candidate instead of a Republican. That would’ve made things a lot easier for the eventual Democratic nominee, whether it’s Krystal Ball or Scott Robinson.

Well, based on her recent statements, it now appears that she will in fact challenge Wittman for the GOP nomination, even thought she’s aware of Virginia’s sore loser law. That’s bad news for Democrats then, since Rob Wittman should have no problem beating crazy ol’ Catherine Crabill among Republicans….right? I’m not so sure.

Keep in mind, the 99th House District Republicans nominated her to run against Albert Pollard last year, even after it became well-known that Crabill blames the government, not Timothy McVeigh, for the Oklahoma City bombing. And what did they get in return for this supposedly disastrous decision? By FAR the closest reelection race Pollard has ever faced! (even though Deeds’ god-awful performance had a little something to do with it)

OK. So, Republicans have to choose between Wittman and Crabill. Well, who is the typical Republican? A new Harris poll revealed what many other similar polls have indicated over the past year. And that is this: Catherine Crabill is the rule, not the exception. I see Marc went over this in a previous post, but here it is again:

  • 24% of Republicans say that Obama “may be the Antichrist.”
  • 38% of Republicans say that Obama is “doing many of the things that Hitler did.”
  • 45% of Republicans believe that Obama was “not born in the United States and so is not eligible to be president.”
  • 57% of Republicans believe that Obama is a Muslim.
  • 67% of Republicans believe that Obama is a socialist.

And keep in mind that this is a poll of Republicans nationwide. The 1st CD in Virginia is much more conservative than the country as a whole.

Think Crabill can’t beat Wittman? Think again.

Meet Krystal Ball

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By , March 22, 2010 6:18 pm

Wittman Shows Complete Lack of Understanding on HCR Bill, Continues to Spread Untruths

By , March 21, 2010 12:01 pm

Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Montross) has once again decided to side with the fringe of his party and vote “no” on the health care reform bill. This should be news to no one, since Wittman has continuously voted in lockstep with his party – the party of “no.” What should surprise everyone is Wittman’s complete lack of understanding of the bill itself and his continued dishonesty – well maybe not his dishonesty.

This past Tuesday, Wittman took the House floor and had the following to say:

I am hearing loud and clear from people of America’s first district in Vir-ginia that this health care bill before us will not reduce costs, will not increase access…

Wittman reiterated this again yesterday, via Twitter:

Wittman has clearly chosen to adopt the talking points of the fringe of his party, no surprise here, and refuses to have an honest discussion with his constituents. This bill will increase access for all, including providing access to 32 million uninsured Americans.

I too am very concerned with spending and the deficit, which is exactly why I support the comprehensive health care reform bill passed by the Senate and the accompanying reconciliation bill.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the official scorekeepers of legislation, have clearly stated that the

combination of these two pieces of legislation would reduce federal deficits by an estimated $138 billion over the 2010-2019 period.

And they added that passing these bills would

reduce federal budget deficits over the ensuing decade relative to those projected under current law – with a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range around one-half percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

On Friday at George Mason University, President Obama added the following:

So you’ve got — you’ve got a whole bunch of opponents of this bill saying, well, we can’t afford this; we’re fiscal conservatives.  These are the same guys who passed that prescription drug bill without paying for it, adding over $1 trillion to our deficit — “Oh, we can’t afford this.”  But this bill, according to the Congressional Budget Office — which is the referee, the scorekeeper for how much things cost — says we’ll save us $1 trillion. Not only can we afford to do this, we can’t afford not to do this.

So let’s get this straight. We are talking about reducing the deficit by at least $1 trillion over the next 20-years, if health care reform is passed. Many would argue that this is a conservative estimate. The CBO has estimated that the GDP would be around $22.5 trillion in 2020. If you estimate 4 percent growth per year in GDP in the second 10-years and use the CBO estimate of a one-half percent deficit reduction during that timeframe, you would actually be reducing the deficit by $1.4 trillion. No matter how you look at things, one thing should be clear: there is no disputing that this health care bill reduces the deficit.

If Wittman is a true “fiscal conservative,” as the President explains, how could he vote against a bill that clearly addresses the concerns of his constituents?  The truth is that he is more concerned with appealing to the fringe of his party than what is in the best interests of his constituents. Clearly reducing the deficit and providing affordable coverage to individuals (including the currently uninsured) and small businesses is bad policy?!

The only thing that is bad policy is allowing Wittman to remain in Congress. The good thing for folks in the First District is that we have an excellent choice to replace him this year in Krystal Ball (D-Fredericksburg).

Robinson’s Super-Sore Loser Strategy Backfiring, Ball Wins Big at James City Caucus

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By , March 18, 2010 9:04 pm

The Robinson campaign actually outdid itself this evening. If you thought that they couldn’t stoop any lower then they did on Monday, when they alleged that a “small” group of Krystal Ball supporters hijacked the caucus process in Stafford County, you would be sadly mistaken. So what is a campaign to do when they are so badly out organized?

If you’re Scott Robinson, you have 1 of the 4 delegates that actually filed for you in James City make a motion to amend the caucus rules that would disqualify any delegates/alternates that were unable to attend.  This sounds like a play out the Bush/Rove handbook. These delegates/alternates followed the Call to Caucus and prefiled by the prescribed deadline. Talk about a super-sore loser!

The result was another brutal loss for the Robinson campaign. They did not win a single delegate. Krystal Ball captured 16 more delegates, bringing her total to 51. She is now more than half way to the magic number of 101, which would make her the Democratic nominee from Virginia’s 1st Congressional District. The remaining 3 delegates chose to be uncommitted and were elected.

The Robinson campaign should be ashamed at the way they have conducted themselves throughout this entire process. I suppose that they will send out an email tomorrow complaining that a “small” group of Krystal Ball supporters hijacked the caucus process in James City too. It’s clear that this sore-loser act is wearing thin with folks and is an absolute embarrassment to his campaign.

There really is only one option left for Scott to salvage his reputation and any dignity he may have left: get behind Krystal and exit this race. The longer he continues this charade, the more foolish he looks and the more desperate. If Scott is serious about wanting what is best for Democrats throughout the district, now is the time to show us; otherwise, these antics are likely to cause harm to our efforts to win over Independents and independent-minded Republicans.

Scott needs to understand that being the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District is not an entitlement, but a privilege.  As Krystal has shown, it takes a positive message and a great field operation to win.

We can only hope that Scott does the right thing for himself, his supporters and the district. It’s time for Scott to get behind Krystal as our nominee.

Wheels Coming Off Robinson Campaign, Ball Sweeps First Set of Caucuses

By , March 13, 2010 3:41 pm

Back in February, I provided some analysis on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District and dissected both candidates strategy for victory in November. Today’s caucus results in Fredericksburg and Stafford proved that I was correct in my analysis.

Krystal Ball proved that “money, message and mobilization” is the key ingredients of a successful campaign. Her field operation was absolutely dominating today, turning out more folks than I’ve ever seen before at not one, but two caucuses. In what can only be described as a thumping, Krystal swept all delegates and alternates from today’s contests in Fredericksburg and Stafford. The key number to look out for is the number of delegates that committed to vote for Krystal. She captured 35 of them today, which is slightly more than one-third of the number that she needs to secure the Democratic nomination.

While there are plenty of contests left before the 1st Congressional District Convention in May, the math for Scott just got a whole lot harder to secure the nomination – if not impossible. The fact is that Krystal’s base of support is strong throughout the district, especially in the southern part of it. I’m also confident that Krystal understands that she cannot take anything for granted and will continue working hard throughout the entire district.

Scott’s field operation seemed non-existent today, if he even has one. Back in February, Scott believed that because of his background, the fact that he was raised within the district and the fact that he was a waterman as a kid that would translate into victory. His overly simplistic and naïve view of things, was clearly on display today; and should provide a moment of pause for democrats who were thinking of supporting him. His formula for victory is a losing one and his message, or lack thereof, is not resonating with the electorate. This election is too important and the stakes too high. Krystal is clearly our best chance of winning this year.

The wheels are clearly coming off of his campaign and his lack of a clear message and strategy is evident. It may be time for him to reassess the viability of his campaign and whether or not he drag out what appears to be an inevitable outcome.

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