Back in February, I provided some analysis on the state of the race for the Democratic nomination in Virginia’s 1st Congressional District and dissected both candidates strategy for victory in November. Today’s caucus results in Fredericksburg and Stafford proved that I was correct in my analysis.
Krystal Ball proved that “money, message and mobilization” is the key ingredients of a successful campaign. Her field operation was absolutely dominating today, turning out more folks than I’ve ever seen before at not one, but two caucuses. In what can only be described as a thumping, Krystal swept all delegates and alternates from today’s contests in Fredericksburg and Stafford. The key number to look out for is the number of delegates that committed to vote for Krystal. She captured 35 of them today, which is slightly more than one-third of the number that she needs to secure the Democratic nomination.
While there are plenty of contests left before the 1st Congressional District Convention in May, the math for Scott just got a whole lot harder to secure the nomination – if not impossible. The fact is that Krystal’s base of support is strong throughout the district, especially in the southern part of it. I’m also confident that Krystal understands that she cannot take anything for granted and will continue working hard throughout the entire district.
Scott’s field operation seemed non-existent today, if he even has one. Back in February, Scott believed that because of his background, the fact that he was raised within the district and the fact that he was a waterman as a kid that would translate into victory. His overly simplistic and naïve view of things, was clearly on display today; and should provide a moment of pause for democrats who were thinking of supporting him. His formula for victory is a losing one and his message, or lack thereof, is not resonating with the electorate. This election is too important and the stakes too high. Krystal is clearly our best chance of winning this year.
The wheels are clearly coming off of his campaign and his lack of a clear message and strategy is evident. It may be time for him to reassess the viability of his campaign and whether or not he drag out what appears to be an inevitable outcome.